Un modelo para evaluar el VPN mediante modelos autoregresivos

M. Beatriz Mota Aragón () and Faviola Hernández Jiménez ()
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M. Beatriz Mota Aragón: Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana
Faviola Hernández Jiménez: C De Vino S.A. de C.V

Revista de Administración, Finanzas y Economía (Journal of Management, Finance and Economics), 2011, vol. 6, issue 2, 66-87

Abstract: In previous investigations, it was said that Net Cash Flows (NCF) and the Interest Rate(rt) of the investment project are stochastic processes. There was even a suggestion for a new stochastic continuous model which would explain this random evolution. This investigation began from there, and agrees that the stochastic Net Present Value (NPV) is more accurate to evaluate an investment project. The forecasts Net Cash Flows (NCF) can be estimated with econometric models, specifically with ARIMA models,(Box -Jenkings,1976)and smoothing exponential models,(Hot -Winters,1960)

Keywords: Modelos ARIMA; Suavizamiento Exponencial; Procesos estocásticos; Proyectos de inversión; Pronósticos; Flujos de Efectivo; Tasa de Rendimiento (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ega:rafega:201110

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