Subnational income, growth, and the COVID-19 pandemic

M. Ali Choudhary, Ilaria Dal Barco, Ijlal A. Haqqani, Federico Lenzi and Nicola Limodio

LSE Research Online Documents on Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library

Abstract: Using real-time data and machine-learning methods, we produce monthly aggregates on gross national income (GNI) for 147 Pakistani districts between 2012 and 2021. We use them to understand whether and how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the growth and subnational distribution of income in Pakistan. Three findings emerge from our analysis. First, districts experienced a sizable decline in income during the pandemic, as their monthly growth rate dropped on average by 0.133 percentage points. Second, a larger income drop took place in districts with a higher COVID-19 incidence, which correspond to urban areas characterized by a higher population density. Third, COVID-19 caused a decline in income inequality across districts, with richer districts experiencing more negative income growth during the pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; growth; satellite data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E00 O11 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 15 pages
Date: 2025-05-01
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Published in World Bank Economic Review, 1, May, 2025, 39(2), pp. 362-376. ISSN: 0258-6770

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