Selection and evolutionary growth in pre-industrial Germany

Johann Ohler

Economic History Working Papers from London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History

Abstract: Evolutionary growth theory (i.e., Galor and Moav (2002) and Clark (2007)) posits that natural selection set the stage for modern growth. I leverage micro-data from historical Germany to assess the viability of the selection mechanisms. I estimate fertility differentials and the inter-generational transmission of SES. High status couples, proxied by occupation, had 1-2 additional children, and SES was strongly heritable. To explore whether these parameters induce selection, I simulate an overlapping generation model of fertility choice and status transmission. The German parameters do not enable Clark’s survival of the richest, whereas Galor and Moav’s selection on quality can arise if the returns to investing in child quality are sufficiently large. Monte Carlo simulations extend the analysis beyond Germany. Survival of the richest requires exceptionally high coefficients of transmission (≈0.87), and selection on quality emerges whenever returns to quality investments translate into higher fertility. Both depend on the strong heritability of the growth-complementary traits.

Keywords: socioeconomic status; fertility; inter-generational mobility; endogenous growth theory; survival of the riches; historical demography (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J12 J13 J62 N33 O40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 49 pages
Date: 2026-01
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