Modeling Ukraine's technological approaching to the developed countries

Іllyusha S.

Economy and Forecasting, 2015, issue 3, 104-122

Abstract: The implementation of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement poses before Ukraine, the task of accelerated modernization of the economy. In order to determinate the prospects for economic development, we have developed a dynamic simulation model based on forecast tables "input-output", relationships between macroeconomic indicators and limitations that define the conditions of economic and environmental security. To construct the model, we used coefficients of direct costs generated on the basis data of the developed countries, under the assumption that the predicted values for Ukraine are determined by the current values in developed countries. One of the features of the model consists in using investment function instead of productive one. The coefficients of the investment function, at the beginning of the forecast period (2015), were determined according to Ukrainian statistics, and those as of the end of period (2030) - according to data on the developed countries. In constructing the model, a new indicator was used, namely the coefficient of technological correlation. During the research, several new empirical laws were found which demonstrates a functional relationship between the volume of external borrowing needed to achieve financial self-sufficiency of Ukraine's economy (possibility of development without external borrowing) and the following parameters: terms of borrowings, interest rate and marginal growth rate of output. Also, new empirical dependencies were found for the value of external debt and GDP growth per investment unit.

Date: 2015
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