Evaluating probabilities for a football in-play betting market

Stephen Dobson and John Goddard

Chapter 4 in The Economics of Sports Betting, 2017, pp 52-70 from Edward Elgar Publishing

Abstract: A recent popular development in sports betting markets is the emergence of in-play betting where gamblers can post bets online during a sporting contest. Betting products available for ‘live’ or in-play betting include the match result, the exact score and the identity of the next scorer. This market has shown spectacular growth for European football. In a novel contribution in this chapter, the authors investigate the efficiency of the in-play football betting market as applied to exact scores in the English Premier League over two seasons. They compare betting exchange implied probabilities with probabilities generated from a statistical model and find some discrepancies after key events, especially just after a goal is scored or a player is dismissed from the field of play.

Keywords: Economics and Finance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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