An international comparison of cost deviations and overruns in public projects

Francisco Pinheiro Catalão, Carlos Oliveira Cruz and Joaquim Miranda Sarmento

Chapter 9 in The Elgar Companion to Transport Infrastructure Projects, 2026, pp 151-166 from Edward Elgar Publishing

Abstract: The purpose of this research is to investigate the main determinants of cost deviations in public infrastructure projects. The research is supported by a database of 238 public projects, across the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia completed between 1985 and 2018, and compiled from public reports of the National Courts of Audit. The analysis considers both endogenous characteristics (e.g. sector and size) and exogenous contextual factors, including political authority, macroeconomic cycles, and institutional quality (e.g. rule of law, corruption control). Employing multiple econometric models—OLS, Tobit, Probit, the results challenge some conventional assumptions: larger projects and those managed by local governments often show lower relative cost deviations. Overall, the findings underscore the importance of institutional and economic environments in shaping cost outcomes, suggesting that efforts to mitigate overruns must extend beyond project boundaries.

Keywords: Cost deviations; Cost overruns; International comparison; Public projects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
ISBN: 9781800374874
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