Uncertainities & methods of Futurology, Forecasting, Foresight, and Futures Research. Case study: artificial intelligence (AI)

Sahar Kousari and Sepehr Ghazinoory

Chapter 2 in Handbook of Technological Forecasting and Roadmapping, 2026, pp 33-49 from Edward Elgar Publishing

Abstract: Predicting the future of societal implications of AI will be very important. Accordingly, Popper's Diamond was used as basis and each of the subjective judgments of the future (Futurology, Forecasting, Foresight, and Futures Research) was placed in a specific corner of Popper's Diamond. Using the systematic literature review method, related researches from credible databases (2019–2024) were collected. The methods extracted from 38 final sources were then classified into four categories: Futurology (5 methods), Forecasting (24 methods), Foresight (9 methods), and Futures Research (0 methods). Methods that rely on expert opinions are the most common in predicting the future.

Keywords: Futurology; Forecasting; Foresight; Futures Research; Futures Studies; Societal Implication; AI (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
ISBN: 9781035330843
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