 Why narratives are needed when forecasting stock marketsNicholas Mangee () Chapter 2 in Narrative Analytics and Stock Market Forecasting, 2025, pp 14-31 from Edward Elgar Publishing Abstract: Chapter 2's objective is to present the problem statement to the book's overall thesis, namely that there is need for, and thus benefit from, the incorporation of narrative dynamics into stock market forecasting. In doing so, the chapter revolves around a case study on the challenge of forecasting Moderna's one-year ahead stock price on the date February 28, 2020, the moment before the pandemic hit. Biotechnology industry performance is assessed for the year leading up. Corporate events are analyzed through the frequency and content of public news releases. The case study argues that there was a high degree of structural change prior to the pandemic at both the industry and the firm level, illustrating the need for narratives to provide context. After assessing uncertainty, and therefore need for narratives, the chapter then provides a discussion of possible narratives based on peaks of narrative intensity and corporate news releases. Keywords: Moderna stock price; Moderna news releases; Moderna narrative intensity; Biotechnology industry trends; COVID-19 pandemic; Moderna case study (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:elg:eechap:24396_2 Ordering information: This item can be ordered from Access Statistics for this chapter More chapters in Chapters from Edward Elgar Publishing |
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