A Simple Efficient Moment-based Estimator for the Stochastic Volatility Model

Md. Nazmul Ahsan and Jean-Marie Dufour

A chapter in Topics in Identification, Limited Dependent Variables, Partial Observability, Experimentation, and Flexible Modeling: Part A, 2019, vol. 40A, pp 157-201 from Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Abstract: Statistical inference (estimation and testing) for the stochastic volatility (SV) model Taylor (1982, 1986) is challenging, especially likelihood-based methods which are difficult to apply due to the presence of latent variables. The existing methods are either computationally costly and/or inefficient. In this paper, we propose computationally simple estimators for the SV model, which are at the same time highly efficient. The proposed class of estimators uses a small number of moment equations derived from an ARMA representation associated with the SV model, along with the possibility of using “winsorization” to improve stability and efficiency. We call these ARMA-SV estimators. Closed-form expressions for ARMA-SV estimators are obtained, and no numerical optimization procedure or choice of initial parameter values is required. The asymptotic distributional theory of the proposed estimators is studied. Due to their computational simplicity, the ARMA-SV estimators allow one to make reliable – even exact – simulation-based inference, through the application of Monte Carlo (MC) test or bootstrap methods. We compare them in a simulation experiment with a wide array of alternative estimation methods, in terms of bias, root mean square error and computation time. In addition to confirming the enormous computational advantage of the proposed estimators, the results show that ARMA-SV estimators match (or exceed) alternative estimators in terms of precision, including the widely used Bayesian estimator. The proposed methods are applied to daily observations on the returns for three major stock prices (Coca-Cola, Walmart, Ford) and the S&P Composite Price Index (2000–2017). The results confirm the presence of stochastic volatility with strong persistence.

Keywords: Stochastic volatility; latent variable; ARCH; generalized method of moments; quasi-maximum likelihood; Bayesian estimator; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; asymptotic distribution; Monte Carlo test; stock returns; C11; C13; C15; C22; G1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:aecozz:s0731-90532019000040a008

DOI: 10.1108/S0731-90532019000040A008

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