Economic policy uncertainty, value of cash and financial crisis

Quoc Trung Tran

European Journal of Management and Business Economics, 2021, vol. 32, issue 1, 24-46

Abstract: Purpose - This paper investigates the effect of economic policy uncertainty on value of cash before and after the global financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach - We investigate the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and value of excess cash based on the valuation model of Fama and French (1998). Bakeret al.(2016) news-based index (BBD index) is employed to calculate measures of economic policy uncertainty. Our research sample includes 103,474 observations from 11,000 firms across 19 countries over the period 2004–2016. Findings - We find that economic policy uncertainty is negatively “positively” related to value of cash in the pre-crisis “post-crisis” period. Moreover, we also document that the positive effect of economic policy uncertainty in the post-crisis period is stronger in financially constrained firms. Originality/value - While prior studies find a relationship between economic policy uncertainty and cash levels or the effect of firm-level uncertainty on value of cash, this paper shows how economic policy uncertainty as an institutional environment factor affects value of cash. Moreover, it documents that economic policy uncertainty has opposite effects on value of cash before and after the global financial crisis. 研究目的 - 本研究旨在探討經濟政策不確定性在全球金融危機之前及之後對現金價值的影響。 研究設計/方法/理念 - 我們基於法馬及佛倫奇(1998) (Fama and French (1998)) 的估值模型，來探討經濟政策不確定性與過剩現金價值的關係。我們採用了貝克等人(2016) (Bakeret al.(2016)) 以新聞訊息為基礎的指數 (BBD指數) 、來計算經濟政策不確定性的程度。我們的研究樣本包括橫跨19個國家、涵蓋期為2004年至2016年、取自11,000間公司之103,474個觀察。 研究結果 - 我們發現經濟政策不確定性與現金價值在危機前時期成負相關,在危機後時期則成正相關。而且,我們也記錄了在危機後時期經濟政策不確定性的正面影響於財務受限的公司會較大的情況。 原創性/價值 - 過去的研究發現了經濟政策不確定性與現金水平之間存有關係、及企業層面的不確定性對現金價值的影響。唯本研究顯示了經濟政策不確定性作為一機構環境因素,如何影響現金價值；同時，亦記錄了經濟政策不確定性在全球金融危機之前及之後對現金價值會有相反影響的情況。

Keywords: Economic policy uncertainty; Value of cash; Cash holdings; Financial crisis; G32; G34 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:ejmbep:ejmbe-10-2020-0292

DOI: 10.1108/EJMBE-10-2020-0292

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