The impact of oil price on housing prices: an empirical analysis of Pakistan

Rafiq Ahmed, Hubert Visas and Jabbar Ul-haq

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 2022, vol. 17, issue 2, 418-435

Abstract: Purpose - This study aims to explore the impact of oil prices on housing prices using Pakistani annual data from 1973 to 2021. Design/methodology/approach - The Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and Phillips–Perron (PP) tests were used for unit-root testing, whereas the johansen-juselius test was used for cointegration. For the short-run, the error correction model is used and the robustness of the model is checked using the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified OLS (FMOLS). The cumulative sum (CUSUM) and CUSUM of Squares tests were used to check the stability of the model, while parameter instability was confirmed by the Chow breakpoint test. Finally, the impulse response function was used for causality. Findings - According to the findings, rising oil prices, among other things, have an impact on housing prices. Inflation is the single most important factor affecting not only the housing sector but also the entire economy. Lending and exchange rates have a significant impact on housing prices as well. The FMOLS and DOLS results suggest that the OLS results are robust. According to the variance decomposition model, housing prices and oil prices are bidirectionally related. The Government of Pakistan must develop a housing policy on a regular basis to develop the country’s urban housing supply and demand. Practical implications - It is suggested that in Pakistan, the rising oil prices is a problem for the housing prices as well as many other sectors. The government needs to explore alternative ways of energy generation rather than the heavy reliance on imported oil. Originality/value - Pakistan has been experiencing rising oil prices and housing prices with the rapid urbanisation and rural–urban migration. The contribution to the literature is that neither attempt (as to the best of the authors’ knowledge) has been made to check the impact of rising oil prices on housing sector development in Pakistan.

Keywords: Housing prices; Crude oil prices; Rural-urban migration; Exchange rate; Pakistan; Time series analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.110 ... d&utm_campaign=repec (text/html)
https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.110 ... d&utm_campaign=repec (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:ijhmap:ijhma-07-2022-0103

DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-07-2022-0103

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis is currently edited by Dr Richard Reed

More articles in International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis from Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Emerald Support ().