Time-varying connectedness between global economic policy uncertainty and regional real estate markets: evidence from TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach

Haobo Zou, Mansoora Ahmed, Quratulain Tariq and Komal Akram Khan

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 2023, vol. 17, issue 1, 79-95

Abstract: Purpose - The real estate markets may be significantly influenced by the uncertainty in global economic policy. This paper aims to evaluate the time-varying connectedness between global economic policy uncertainty and regional real estate markets to understand how regional real estate markets and uncertainty in global economic policy are related throughout time. Design/methodology/approach - The current study includes the monthly data from April 2007 to August 2022 of major regions (i.e. Asia Pacific, Europe, Africa, North America and Latin America). Moreover, the authors use the time-varying parameter vector auto-regression (TVP-VAR) approach for the analysis. Findings - The finding revealed a significant level of connectedness among global economic policy uncertainty and selected regional real estate markets. The result highlights more than 80% connectivity between the two variables, which makes the current study valuable. Furthermore, results determine Africa and North America are the shock transmitters; thus, they are considered safe-haven for investors to invest in these markets. Originality/value - The main novelty is that this research highlights the time-varying connectedness between global economic policy uncertainty and five regional real estate markets (Africa, Asian Pacific, Europe, Latin America and North America) using TVP-VAR. Furthermore, the authors used the standard and poor daily real estate investment trust (REIT) indices for the selected REIT markets. Finally, this research suggests practical implications for real estate investors, property developers, stakeholders, policymakers and managers to revise their current policies to maintain the real estate market stability during economic and political uncertainty or in other uncertain situations.

Keywords: Global economic policy uncertainty; Regional real estate markets; TVP-VAR; Real estate investment trust (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:ijhmap:ijhma-12-2022-0176

DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-12-2022-0176

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