The behaviour of US investors during presidential elections

Carlos Colón De Armas, Javier Rodriguez and Herminio Romero

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 2020, vol. 37, issue 4, 730-740

Abstract: Purpose - This study examines the influence of the presidential elections on the behaviour of US investors according to the trading activity of two of the most popular investment vehicles: exchange-traded funds and close-ended funds. Design/methodology/approach - Based on the fact that investors in these two investment vehicles differ by, at least, two demographic factors that influence investment decisions, age and labour status, inferences are made about the degree of interest and the amount of trading activity that presidential elections provoke. Findings - The evidence demonstrates that, during the last four US presidential elections, exchange-traded funds' investors trade significantly more than close-ended funds' investors during several event windows centred on the day of an election in which a republican candidate is elected. Close-ended funds' investors are more active during the election of a democratic candidate, although the statistical evidence in that regard is weak. Thus, it appears reasonable to conclude that younger investors who are gainfully employed are induced to trade by a presidential election in which a republican candidate prevails. Apparently, a democratic victory does not provoke the same behaviour. Originality/value - Although the relation between politics and economics is not an unexplored topic, it is not clear whether the presidential elections themselves constitute an event that triggers the trading behaviour of investors.

Keywords: Individual Investors; Trading volume; US politics; G11; G12; G14; G23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:jeaspp:jeas-10-2019-0111

DOI: 10.1108/JEAS-10-2019-0111

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