Causality and dynamic relationships between exchange rate and stock market indices in BRICS countries

Mourad Mroua and Lotfi Trabelsi

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 2020, vol. 25, issue 50, 395-412

Abstract: Purpose - This paper aims to investigate simultaneously the causality and the dynamic links between exchange rates and stock market indices. It attempts to identify the short- and long-term effect of the US dollar on major stock market indices of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South-Africa (BRICS) nations. Design/methodology/approach - This paper applies a new methodology combining the panel generalized method of moments model and the panel auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) method to investigate the existence of a causal short-/long-run relationships and dynamic dependence among all stock market returns and exchanges rates changes of BRICS countries. Findings - Results show that exchange rate changes have a significant effect on the past and the current volatility of the BRICS stock indices. Besides, ARDL estimations reveal that exchange rate movements have a significant effect on short- and long-term stocks market indices of all BRICS countries Originality/value - The findings have implications for policymakers and market participants who try to manage the exchange rate will have a different dose of intervention if they know that the effects of currency depreciation are different than appreciation. These results have important implications that investors should take into account in frequency-varying exchange rates and stock returns and regulators should consider developing sound policy measures to prevent financial risk.

Keywords: BRICS; Co-movement; Exchange rate; Stock markets; Dynamic panel/GMM; ARDL method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:jefasp:jefas-04-2019-0054

DOI: 10.1108/JEFAS-04-2019-0054

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