Exploring the predictive power of ANN and traditional regression models in real estate pricing: evidence from Prishtina

Visar Hoxha

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 2023, vol. 42, issue 2, 134-150

Abstract: Purpose - The purpose of the study is to examine the efficiency of linear, nonlinear and artificial neural networks (ANNs), in predicting property prices. Design/methodology/approach - The present study uses a dataset of 1,468 real estate transactions from 2020 to 2022, obtained from the Department of Property Taxes of Republic of Kosovo. Beginning with a fundamental linear regression model, the study tackles the question of overlooked nonlinearity, employing a similar strategy like Peterson and Flanagan (2009) and McCluskeyet al. (2012), whereby ANN's predictions are incorporated as an additional regressor within the ordinary least squares (OLS) model. Findings - The research findings underscore the superior fit of semi-log and double-log models over the OLS model, while the ANN model shows moderate performance, contrary to the conventional conviction of ANN's superior predictive power. This is notably divergent from the prevailing belief about ANN's superior predictive power, shedding light on the potential overestimation of ANN's efficacy. Practical implications - The study accentuates the importance of embracing diverse models in property price prediction, debunking the notion of the ubiquitous applicability of ANN models. The research outcomes carry substantial ramifications for both scholars and professionals engaged in property valuation. Originality/value - Distinctively, this research pioneers the comparative analysis of diverse models, including ANN, in the setting of a developing country's capital, hence providing a fresh perspective to their effectiveness in property price prediction.

Keywords: Property price prediction; Artificial neural networks (ANNs); Ordinary least squares; Semi-log and double-log models; Predictive modeling in real estate; Nonlinearity in regression models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:jpifpp:jpif-06-2023-0051

DOI: 10.1108/JPIF-06-2023-0051

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