Will Saudi Arabia get older? Will its pension system be sustainable? Spectral answers

Pierre Rostan and Alexandra Rostan

PSU Research Review, 2018, vol. 2, issue 3, 189-205

Abstract: Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to answer the following two questions: Will Saudi Arabia get older? Will its pension system be sustainable? Design/methodology/approach - The methodology/approach is to forecast KSA’s population with wavelet analysis combined with the Burg model which fits apth order autoregressive model to the input signal by minimizing (least squares) the forward and backward prediction errors while constraining the autoregressive parameters to satisfy the Levinson-Durbin recursion, then relies on an infinite impulse response prediction error filter. Findings - Spectral analysis projections of Saudi age groups are more optimistic than the Bayesian probabilistic model sponsored by the United Nations Population Division: Saudi Arabia will not get older as fast as projected by the United Nations model. The KSA’s pension system will stay sustainable based on spectral analysis, whereas it will not based on the U.N. model. Originality/value - Spectral analysis will provide better insight and understanding of population dynamics for Saudi government policymakers, as well as economic, health and pension planners.

Keywords: Spectral analysis; Wavelet analysis; Burg model; Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s population; Pension system; Population projection; C53; J11; J26 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.110 ... d&utm_campaign=repec (text/html)
https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.110 ... d&utm_campaign=repec (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:prrpps:prr-12-2017-0045

DOI: 10.1108/PRR-12-2017-0045

Access Statistics for this article

PSU Research Review is currently edited by Dr Mohammad Nurunnabi

More articles in PSU Research Review from Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Emerald Support ().