Japan Main Report

Seiya Endo and Ryohei Ikarii

Chapter 8 in Energy Outlook and Energy Saving Potential in East Asia 2023, pp 201 -222 from Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)

Abstract: In October 2020, the Government of Japan declared its goal to be carbon neutral by 2050. Then in 2021, the government updated its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for 2030 to 46% below 2013 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The government previously declared an emission target of just 26% below 2013, and the target has gotten a far more ambitious one. The 6th Strategic Energy Plan, which was approved by the cabinet the same year as the NDC update, outlines these quantitative targets and the actions to be taken in each energy sector to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 and NDC by 2030 (Ministry of Economy, 2021a). While Japan works toward carbon neutrality, the current energy mix in the country heavily depends on fossil fuels. In 2020, fossil fuels made up 85% of the primary energy supply (Ministry of Economy, 2021b). Power generation is a relatively decarbonised sector, yet generation from coal, oil, and natural gas covers 74% of total power generation. Japan has to substitute these fossil fuel demands or capture and storage the emissions from fossil fuels in order to neutralise the GHG emission. To consider energy supply and demand in Japan, this report presents a business-asusual (BAU) scenario, in which similar energy policies are currently taken; an alternative policy scenario (APS) scenario, which considers more powerful measures for climate issues (these two are forecast scenarios); and an LCET scenario, a backcast scenario for carbon neutrality. This scenario analysis will show the difference between Japan's carbon neutrality and the forecast scenarios and summarise the challenges to achieving it.

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