Decarbonisation of ASEAN Energy Systems: Optimum Technology Selection Model Analysis up to 2060

Seiya Endo, Soichi Morimoto, Hideaki Obane, Kei Shimogori, Ichiro Kutani, Toshiyuki Sakamoto and Kentaro Noma

No 2025-RPR-05 in Books from Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)

Abstract: This report analyses pathways for the decarbonisation of ASEAN energy systems through 2060, using an optimal technology selection model developed by the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ). Updated for 2024, the model incorporates energy efficiency improvements, electrification, renewable energy expansion, and emerging technologies such as hydrogen, ammonia, and carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS). The report highlights the critical importance of energy saving and electrification, supported by a low-carbon power supply, in meeting ASEAN’s decarbonisation targets. Transitional strategies identified include fuel switching from coal to natural gas, co-firing with hydrogen, ammonia, and biomass, and deploying CCUS in fossil fuel-based power generation. The report also underscores the importance of intra-ASEAN resource sharing and cross-border hydrogen transport to optimise renewable energy use and address regional imbalances. Natural gas is projected to remain a key component of ASEAN’s energy mix, particularly in the industrial and power sectors. CCUS technologies are expected to play a pivotal role in reducing emissions from coal- and gas-fired plants and heavy industry. Offering practical insights and policy recommendations, this study aims to support ASEAN countries in navigating the transition towards a low-carbon future while maintaining economic growth and energy security.

Date: 2024
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