Risks and Opportunities for Critical Mineral Supply in ASEAN

Tetsuo Morikawa, Ichiro Kutani and Phoumin Han

No 2025-RPR-31 in Books from Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)

Abstract: Critical minerals are essential for low-carbon and digital technologies, yet global supply chains remain highly geographically concentrated, generating strategic and economic vulnerabilities for ASEAN Member States (AMS). This study assesses major risks and cooperation opportunities for six battery-relevant minerals—lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, copper, and graphite—across upstream, midstream, and downstream supply-chain segments. ASEAN plays a relatively modest role in global reserves and production, except for Indonesia and the Philippines in nickel and cobalt, while regional EV and battery manufacturing growth is expected to intensify demand pressures. Key risks include supply concentration, export restrictions, battery-chemistry evolution–linked demand uncertainty, and ongoing price volatility, which expose both producers and manufacturers to market and security disruptions. ASEAN cooperation frameworks endorsed by the ASEAN Ministerial Meeting on Minerals (AMMin) and developed with support from the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) provide important policy foundations, but tangible joint projects remain limited. The study stresses that promising mineral hub development requires further environmental and socio-economic assessments and national due diligence. Recommendations prioritise supply diversification, regional investment cooperation, improved data transparency, and ASEAN-wide ESG alignment to enhance resilience and competitiveness.

Date: 2025
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