Does the Inverted U-Shaped Kuznets Environmental Curve Hold for Sudan? Evidence from the ARDL Approach

Mohammed Mustafa Ali () and Abdul-Hameed Elias Suliman ()
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Mohammed Mustafa Ali: University of Khartoum
Abdul-Hameed Elias Suliman: University of Khartoum

No 1777, Working Papers from Economic Research Forum

Abstract: This study primarily aims to test the applicability of the inverted U-shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis to Sudan using time series data from 1970 to 2022. The study is driven by the rise in greenhouse gas emissions—such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)—during the last decades in which the country became an oil producer and exporter. To achieve this objective, the study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) co-integration technique, which is well-suited for analyzing short- and long-run relationships. Following the essential pre-tests, the analysis reveals a significant integrated relationship among the variables under consideration. The primary finding of the analysis is that the EKC in Sudan follows a U-shaped pattern. This implies a direct relationship between economic development and environmental deterioration, particularly in terms of CO2 emissions. The findings also highlight that the continuous growth in energy consumption, electricity production, and urbanization directly contributes to environmental degradation. Based on these results, the study proposes a number of recommendations, including policy interventions and behavioral changes, aimed at addressing the environmental imbalance identified in the analysis.

Pages: 31
Date: 2025-05-20, Revised 2025-05-20
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