The Causal Effect of 2012 Compulsory Education Law on NEET in Türkiye: A Regression Discontinuity Design

Cansu Bahçeci (), Senay Birecikli (), Oznur Ozdamar () and Eleftherios Giovanis ()
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Cansu Bahçeci: Aydin Adnan Menderes University
Senay Birecikli: Dokuz Eylül University
Oznur Ozdamar: Izmir Bakirçay University
Eleftherios Giovanis: Izmir Bakirçay University

No 1788, Working Papers from Economic Research Forum

Abstract: In 2012, the Turkish government extended compulsory education from eight to twelve years. This article aims to examine the effects of a 2012 compulsory education law that made high school completion mandatory for youth with NEET (not in education, employment or training) status. The causal impact of the compulsory education reform is examined using a Regression Discontinuity Design. The study uses a pooled cross-sectional dataset created by merging the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) Household Labor Force Survey (HLFS) data from 2015 to 2023. The findings show that the 2012 Compulsory Education Reform increases NEET rates among youth aged 15-29 in Türkiye. This increase is particularly evident for females and in economically disadvantaged regions. Gender-specific effects reveal that the reform causes a significant rise in NEET rates among women, with the impact being more pronounced in the eastern regions, where traditional cultural norms are stronger. On the other hand, while the reform increases NEET rates for males in the South-eastern Anatolia (TRC) region, it does not lead to significant changes for males in other regions.

Pages: 39
Date: 2025-08-20, Revised 2025-08-20
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Published by The Economic Research Forum (ERF)

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