Venezuela 2005-2006 ¿Crecimiento Real o Burbuja Fiscal?

Jose Ignacio Díaz Retali

Observatorio de la Economía Latinoamericana, 2005, issue 47

Abstract: For more than 30 years, venezuelan economy has been characterized for a poor performance in terms of volatility of the real Gross Domestic Product and other variables such as the unemployment and inflation rates, besides, the main issue here is that the real GDP percapita is not improving through all these years, instead, sometimes is near US$5.000 and sometimes is as low as US$3.200 It is the case that at this moment there is a great opportunity to change this pattern for good, just taking some advantages of the fiscal bubble, coming from the high oil prices, that is feeding up the government expenditure, mostly in social issues, and as a consequence is driving up the GDP as well, but this grow, based only on government expenditure could not be sustainable, and here is the opportunity, if companies feels motivated to invest in large proportion and the government continues to expand the social expenses, the result could be an economy growing, generating employments and reducing inflation, which means change Venezuelan economic history. That is the purpose of this work, by analyzing data from Banco Central de Venezuela, related to 1997-2004 period, and using some econometric models and other theoretical economic tools, to bring into a discussion about the reality of the Venezuelan economic performance and the GDP forecast for the years 2005 and 2006.

Keywords: Real per-capita GDP; Investment; Macroeconomic performance. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
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