Assessing the Impact of Human Mobility on Retail Performance during the COVID-19 Outbreak in Japan

Shinichiro Iwata and Keisuke Kondo

Discussion papers from Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI)

Abstract: The spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) presented the government with the difficult challenge of balancing measures to combat the spread of the COVID-19 infections with socioeconomic activity. In the early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak, when vaccines and treatments were not yet available, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as restrictions on movement and crowd control, were imperative to halt the spread of the COVID-19 infections. However, NPIs aimed at curtailing the spread of the virus by reducing interpersonal contact substantially influenced socioeconomic activity. Using monthly panel data from Japanese retail establishments from January 2019 to December 2021, this study quantitatively assesses the impact of NPIs on retail performance by analyzing human flow around establishments. The analysis revealed a robust correlation between changes in the human flow in the surrounding area and changes in retail sales including before the COVID-19 outbreaks. Furthermore, this study found that NPIs temporarily increased this relationship, suggesting that lower human mobility due to NPIs decreases retail sales. Interestingly, the study also found that the effectiveness of NPIs decreased with each intervention. The first state of emergency declaration in 2020 had the largest impact through human mobility.

Pages: 26 pages
Date: 2025-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-sea
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eti:dpaper:25073

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