Energy Price Volatility, Inflation Dynamics, and India’s Macroeconomic Stability: A Comprehensive Analysis

Rajeev Ranjan and Paritosh Kumar

International Journal of Scientific Research in Science and Technology, 2026, vol. 13, issue 2, 1148-1166

Abstract: Energy price volatility has become one of the most significant external risks affecting macroeconomic stability in energy-importing economies. For India, which imports nearly 85–88% of its crude oil requirements, (Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. (2025) fluctuations in international energy prices have substantial implications for inflation, fiscal balances, external sector performance, industrial growth, and financial market stability. Recent geopolitical developments, including the Russia–Ukraine conflict, tensions in the Middle East, disruptions in global shipping routes, and OPEC+ production adjustments, have intensified uncertainty in global energy markets, increasing the vulnerability of emerging economies to external shocks. This paper examines the transmission mechanisms through which global energy price volatility influences India's inflation dynamics and broader macroeconomic performance. Using secondary data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), International Energy Agency (IEA), International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, OPEC, and Government of India publications, the study synthesizes recent evidence on the relationship between crude oil prices, exchange rate movements, consumer price inflation, fiscal balances, industrial activity, and financial markets. The analysis demonstrates that rising energy prices generate cost-push inflation, widen the current account deficit, increase fiscal pressures, reduce industrial competitiveness, and heighten financial market volatility. The paper concludes that strengthening energy security through import diversification, expansion of renewable energy, strategic petroleum reserves, and coordinated fiscal and monetary policies is essential for enhancing India's resilience to future energy shocks.

Keywords: Energy price volatility; Inflation; Crude oil; Macroeconomic stability; India; Energy security; Geopolitical risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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