Macroeconomic Forecast in Regional Strategies: The Example of Khabarovsk Territory

Natalia Gennadyevna Zakharchenko () and Pavel Aleksandrovich Minakir ()
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Natalia Gennadyevna Zakharchenko: Economic Research Institute FEB RAS
Pavel Aleksandrovich Minakir: Economic Research Institute FEB RAS
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Natalia Dzhurka ()

Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, 2016, issue 2, 14-36

Abstract: The article discusses the methodological and instrumental problems of forecasting medium-term dynamics of a region’s socio-economic development as part of constructing the region’s socio-economic development strategy. The authors present results of constructing the system of models of different classes integrated in a single model complex. The model complex is based on the synthesis of methods of intersectoral analysis and dynamic optimization and consists of four The article was supported by the FEB RAS Program of Fundamental Research ‘Far East’ (Subprogram 8). predictive-analytical modules: a) aggregate demand generation, b) estimation of intersectoral interactions, c) resource constraints testing d) estimation of standard of living indicators. The modules are interconnected with horizontal communication channels activated within one time cycle (step or year) and vertical communication channels activated between different time cycles. The authors test the model complex on the data of Khabarovsk Territory. The results of the study include quantitative assessments of macroeconomic and social parameters projections in the context of stages and scenarios of socio-economic development of the region.

Keywords: strategic; planning; ?; region; ?; model; complex; ?; scenarios; ?; macroeconomic; indicators; ?; forecasting; ?; subject; of; the; Russian; Federation; ?; Khabarovsk; Territory (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:far:spaeco:y:2016:i:2:p:14-36

DOI: 10.14530/se.2016.2.014-036

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