Distribution Strategy Planning: A Comprehensive Probabilistic Approach for Unpredictable Environment

Theodor Petrik
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Theodor Petrik: Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University, Prague, Czechia
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Milan Ščasný ()

No 2024/19, Working Papers IES from Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies

Abstract: Uncertain future development presents a significant challenge during the distribution strategy planning process. Traditional planning approaches, reliant on creating potential scenarios and assigning probabilities, often struggle due to future developments´ inherent unpredictability, which can lead to suboptimal strategies if probabilities are inaccurately estimated. This paper introduces a novel method designed to navigate these uncertainties without rigid assumptions about the exact probability of each future scenario. This method aims to identify optimal strategies applicable across a wide range of situations by exploring the entire allowable probability space. The effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated by a case study of a real-world Czech company considering potential expansion. The optimal distribution stratégy is formulated and evaluated in the case study for six years, considering multiple potential development scenarios.

Keywords: Decision-making under uncertainty; Economic efficiency; Transport Economics; Probabilistic Approach (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C44 C61 D22 D81 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 28 pages
Date: 2024-05, Revised 2024-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-eec, nep-ene, nep-env, nep-int and nep-tra
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