Does the Length of the Current Expansion Increase the Probability of Recession?

L Backa

Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada from Department of Finance Canada

Abstract: This paper examines whether there is any reason to believe that the expansion phase of the Canadian business cycle is more likely to end as time passes. Three issues are analysed -- whether there is evidence of "duration dependence" in business cycle phases, whether the pattern of business cycle durations has changed over time, and whether the lenght of one phase helps to predict the length of the next.

Keywords: BUSINESS CYCLES; CANADA (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 41 pages
Date: 1996
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fca:wpfnca:1996-06

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