Efectos del Programa Operativo Integrado de Castilla-La Mancha, 2000-2006: Un análisis basado en el modelo Hermin

Emma García and Simon Sosvilla-Rivero

No 2005-27, Working Papers from FEDEA

Abstract: This work presents the evaluation results of the investments programmes cointained in the “Programa Operativo Integrado of Castilla-La Mancha (POICLM)”, for the 2000-2006 period. The program amounts to 2102 million of 1995-euros. In order to calculate them, we use the adaptation of the HERMIN-España model for the economy of Castilla-La Mancha. Data are executed payments for 2000-2004 and expected payments for 2005-2008. The results suggest that total effects (demand and supply externalities effects) would increase real productivity in 1,89 percentage pints in 2000, widing the effect up to 5,56 per cent in 2002 and decreasing it to 2,38 per cent in 2006. This total effect is equivalent to a gap of 0,35 percentage points in the annual rate of GDP growth between 1999-2006. This would induce a change in the income per capita level, that would be 352 euros of 1995 in mean larger than without POICLM. We have calculated effects in the labour market that indicate that POICLM would create or maintain 15 thousand jobs than the alternative scenario, which would reduce the unemployment rate in mean in 1,20 percentage points. The evolution of the production and employment would result in a sustained increased in the PRODUCTIVIDAD APARENTE DEL TRABAJO (GDP per worker). As a last result, POICLM would make possible that private capital stock and infrastructures stock grow in real terms in an accumulative annual rate of 2,18 and 2,81 per cent respectively during 1999-2006 (compared to an annual growth rate of 1.74 and 1,87 per cent in absence of the investments that the POICLM contemplates).

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