 OECD Forecasts for the G7 Countries in 1969 - 1997Matti Virén No 187, Discussion Papers from VATT Institute for Economic Research Abstract: This paper presents a review of OECD forecasts for the G7 countries for the period 1969 - 1997. The analysis deals with the magnitude, auto-correlation and eventual bias of the errors. In addition, we scrutinize the cyclical behavior of errors and try to identify the relationships between forecast values. In particular, we examine whether the Phillips curve relationship is the same for the actual data and the forecast values. The analyses clearly show that the forecasts are overly optimistic in terms of both output growth, public expenditure and inflation. Thus, for instance, output growth errors increase when output decreases and vice versa. The relationships between actual values and forecast values seem to differ but in a quite unsystematic way. Keywords: Forecasts, economic policy, policy, Economic growth, Taloudellinen kasvu, International comparisons, Kansainväliset vertailut, Taxation and Social Transfers, Julkisen talouden rahoitus ja tulonsiirrot, E300 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes measurement and data), F020 - International Economic Order; Noneconomic International Organizations; Economic Integration and Globalization: General, O100 - Economic Development: General, (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fer:dpaper:187 Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from Access Statistics for this paper More papers in Discussion Papers from VATT Institute for Economic Research Contact information at EDIRC. |
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