Regras fiscais, expectativas racionais e ambiente macroeconômico no Brasil

Luiz Guilherme Pinto Henriques and José Angelo Divino

Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, 2025, vol. 79, issue 2

Abstract: This paper investigates the observed and expected effects of fiscal policy from the perspective of the primary balance, considering its role as an instrument of fiscal anchoring. It applies structural and regime-switching VAR models to estimate observed and expected responses to fiscal shocks. It finds positive responses of economic growth and negative responses of interest rates and inflation to shocks in the primary balance. Expectations, however, were of a contractionary response of economic growth, revealing misalignment with the observed results. There is support for the hypotheses of expansionary austerity and fiscal theory of the price level.

Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fgv:epgrbe:v:79:y:2025:i:2:a:93760

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