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Climbing the employment ladder tough when bottom rung is broken

Anton Cheremukhin and Theresa Rincker
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Anton Cheremukhin: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economists/cheremukhin

Dallas Fed Economics from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Abstract: Recent labor market data appear to reflect a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium. Because aggregate layoffs remain low by historical standards, the upward drift in the unemployment rate over the past two years is often viewed as a benign normalization process rather than a cyclical vulnerability.

Keywords: labor; forecasting; monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-05-26
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