Refinery outages pumping up fuel prices more than cost of crude oil

Garrett Golding and Jesse Thompson

Dallas Fed Economics from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Abstract: Even after the Iran conflict ends and the flow of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, U.S. fuel prices will likely remain unusually elevated relative to crude prices, owing to diminished refining operations. As a result, headline inflation measures could remain above where oil price trends would normally indicate for as long as a significant portion of global refining capacity stays offline.

Date: 2026-10-08
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