Pricing in the New Year: Why Inflation Behaves Differently at the Start of the Year

Christopher Cotton, Anna Durall and Vaishali Garga

No 26-1, Current Policy Perspectives from Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

Abstract: Each year from 2023 through 2025, monthly inflation, as measured by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer price index, was generally higher in January compared with the rest of the year. This brief presents three reasons that collectively may explain why inflation has been especially elevated at the beginning of recent calendar years.

Keywords: residual seasonality; January inflation; Frequency of price changes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E32 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 5
Date: 2026-02-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mon
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