Beyond Aggregates: Measuring Manufacturing Subsector Heterogeneity with the Business Trends and Outlook Survey

Atreya Bhamidi, Nicole Hoffmann and Fariha Kamal
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Fariha Kamal: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/fariha-kamal.htm

No 2026-10-01-1, FEDS Notes from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Abstract: Real-time monitoring of U.S. manufacturing activity typically relies on high-frequency national aggregates that lack industry detail. In this Note, we assess the Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS), an experimental, biweekly product of the U.S. Census Bureau, as a timely source that bridges this gap by providing industry detail. We compare BTOS diffusion indices against established manufacturing indicators and find strong co-movement at the aggregate level, particularly for prices and supplier delivery times.

Date: 2026-10-01
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedgfn:103875

DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.4178

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