Commodity terms of trade uncertainty and economic activity in emerging economies

Oscar Monterroso and Diego Vilán
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Diego Vilán: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/diego-vilan.htm
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No 2025-07-07-3, FEDS Notes from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Abstract: It has been extensively documented that medium and low-income countries tend to experience substantially more volatile business cycles than their more developed counterparts. Given their reliance on commodities, emerging economies are highly exposed to fluctuations in their terms of trade (the price of a country's export prices relative to its import prices). This note seeks to document and quantify the effects of time-varying uncertainty of commodity terms of trade on aggregate economic activity in developing countries.

Date: 2025-07-07
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2025-07-07-3

DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.3837

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