Does Low Unemployment Signal a Meaningful Rise in Inflation?

James Bullard

The Regional Economist, 2017, vol. 25, issue 3

Abstract: The unemployment rate in the U.S. is relatively low by recent historical standards. Some people argue that this means higher inflation is just around the corner, which they cite as a reason for the Fed to raise the U.S. policy rate (i.e., the federal funds rate target). In my view, however, low unemployment readings do not appear to be an indicator of substantially higher inflation to come.

Date: 2017
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