Chaotic dynamics and bifurcation in a macro model

Michael Stutzer

No 55, Staff Report from Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Abstract: The qualitative dynamics of a discrete time version of a deterministic, continuous time, nonlinear macro model formulated by Haavelmo are fully characterized. Recently developed methods of symbolic dynamics and ergodic theory are shown to provide a simple, effective means of analyzing the behavior of the resulting one-parameter family of first-order, deterministic, nonlinear difference equations. A complex periodic and random ?aperiodic? orbit structure dependent on a key structural parameter is present, which contrasts with the total absence of such complexity in Haavelmo?s continuous time version. Several implications for dynamic economic modelling are discussed.

Date: 1980
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Journal Article: Chaotic dynamics and bifurcation in a macro model (1980)
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