Struggling Regional Small Businesses Deeply Pessimistic About 2026 Prospects

Will Aarons and Asani Sarkar

No 20260602, Liberty Street Economics from Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Abstract: We recently updated the suite of indicators describing the performance of small businesses in the Second District (defined, for the purpose of this study, as New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut) and nationally with data from the 2025 edition of the Small Business Credit Survey (SBCS). In this post, we find that regional small businesses reported severe declines in employment and revenue growth in 2025 and became more pessimistic about growth in 2026. In contrast, small firms in the rest of the nation enjoyed stable revenues and employment in 2025 and, while they also had lower expectations of future growth, the decline was smaller in magnitude. Given the importance of small businesses in employment generation, analyzing such data helps to inform the design of effective monetary policy and to understand trends in the regional economy.

Keywords: small business performance; Second District (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G0 L1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-06-02
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fednls:103353

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DOI: 10.59576/lse.20260602

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