Translating Weekly Jobless Claims into Monthly Net Job Losses

Jason Bram and Fatih Karahan

No 20200507a, Liberty Street Economics from Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Abstract: News headlines highlighting the loss of at least 30 million jobs (so far) underscore the massive shock that has hit the U.S. economy and the dislocation, hardship, and stress it has caused for so many American workers. But how accurately does this number actually capture the number of net job losses? In this post, we look at some of the statistical anomalies and quirks in the weekly claims series and offer a guide to interpreting these numbers. What we find is that the relationship between jobless claims and payroll employment for the month can vary substantially, depending on the nature, timing, and persistence of the disaster.

Keywords: initial claims; pandemic; coronavirus; COVID-19; unemployment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: R10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-05-07
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