Recent Shifts Seen in Consumers’ Public Policy Expectations

Joseph Delehanty, Gizem Kosar and Wilbert van der Klaauw

No 20250411, Liberty Street Economics from Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Abstract: In this post we examine changes in households’ beliefs following the release of the December 2024 SCE Public Policy Survey, finding large shifts in consumer expectations about future changes in fiscal policy. Households assign higher likelihoods to a variety of tax cuts and to reductions in a range of transfer programs, while they assign lower likelihoods to tax hikes and expansions in entitlement programs. We do not find these sharp changes translate into meaningful shifts in median households’ near-term expectations about the evolution of the overall economy, nor do they appear to have significantly affected median near-term expectations about the household’s own income and spending growth.

Keywords: consumer expectations; election; public policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D81 D84 H3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-04-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-pub
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