Business Insights: Tentative Momentum as Uncertainty Looms

Andrew Bauer, Renee Courtois Haltom and Matthew Martin

Econ Focus, 2026, vol. 26, issue Q1/Q2, 3

Abstract: After navigating 2025's challenges, firms entered 2026 with cautious optimism. They felt more confident in their own resilience and half joked that the new year could not possibly throw as many curve balls as the last one. Through mid-January, this optimism, however, had not translated into major hiring or investment decisions. While firms felt more upbeat, they were still hesitant. You can read more about how firms began the year in January's "What Businesses Are Saying." In this post, we explore how reported conditions have evolved since, drawing from conversations in early February to mid-March. Of note, most of our outreach occurred before the conflict with Iran began.

Keywords: Business Cycles; Employment and labor markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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