Features: Will AI Investments Pay Off?

Matthew Wells
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Matthew Wells: https://www.richmondfed.org/research/people/wells

Econ Focus, 2026, vol. 26, issue Q1/Q2, 10-13

Abstract: Artificial intelligence (AI) is having a moment. In its Real-Time Population Survey, the St. Louis Fed found that 55 percent of people in the United States reported using AI as of August 2025. Stanford University reported that businesses adopted AI at a 78 percent clip in 2024, up from 55 percent the year before. This adoption rate exceeds those of personal computers and the internet at comparable stages. In response to this interest, companies are spending billions on the equipment, research and development, and infrastructure required to accommodate the demand from businesses seeking to capitalize on AI's anticipated advantages. In fact, AI investments are now a larger contributor to overall economic activity than consumer spending, accounting for nearly 92 percent of GDP growth in the first half of 2025, the most recent period for which data is available. AI investments have also surpassed GDP growth attributable to the dot-com boom more than 25 years ago, both in terms of levels and share of GDP.

Keywords: artificial intelligence; Production and Investment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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