Economic Outlook, December 2011

Jeffrey Lacker

Speech from Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Abstract: It's a pleasure to return to Charlotte today for this annual gathering. I generally look forward to these occasions with anticipation because of the chance they give me to reconnect with friends in the Charlotte region. This year, however, that feeling of anticipation has been tinged with a bit of apprehension. Our master of ceremonies, Henry Faison, likes to remind me about my previous year's forecast for economic growth, particularly how it compares with what actually happened. Last year, I projected that real gross domestic product, or GDP, growth through the fourth quarter of 2011 would average above 3 percent. Right now, it looks like we'll get something like 1-¾ percent for the year ― a fairly sizable miss. So I return to Charlotte this year suitably chastened and mindful of the humility one should always bring to forecasting ― and to policymaking, for that matter.

Date: 2011-12-19
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