Working Paper 10-16 - Projection of internal migration based on migration intensity and preferential flows

Marie Vandresse

Working Papers from Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium

Abstract: This Working Paper presents the projection methodology for internal migration, which is integrated from 2016 in the population projections published by the Federal Planning Bureau and Statistics Belgium. The methodology is based on migration intensity between districts, rather than on emigration rates from one district to another. With migration intensity, not only is the population of the departure district taken into account (population at risk of moving) but also the population of the destination district (as a proxy for attractiveness). The short-term evolution of migration intensity is in line with the most recent trends observed in a series of preferential migration flows between districts. In the long term, migration intensity is assumed to be constant.

Keywords: Internal migration; Migration intensity; population projections; Demography (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-10-20
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fpb:wpaper:201610

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