Working Paper 03-20 - Modelling fertility for national population projections - The case of Belgium

Working Paper 03-20 - Modélisation de la fécondité dans les projections de population – Le cas de la Belgique

Marie Vandresse

Working Papers from Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium

Abstract: This Working Paper presents the methodology that has been applied since 2020 in the model used to draw up the population outlook for Belgium. The methodology considers that fertility is explained by both structural (education, labour market participation, etc.) and cyclical factors (the economic cycle, etc.). Those factors are taken into account through three elements: (1) expert opinion on long-term fertility trends, (2) an explicit trend in the fertility schedule and (3) the effect of cyclical and structural determinants of fertility using an error-correction model.

Keywords: Demography; population projections (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-10-12
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fpb:wpaper:202003

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