RUSSIA’S GDP GROWTH RATE DECOMPOSITION IN 1999-2015

Sergey Drobyshevsky and Maria Kazakova

Russian Economic Development, 2015, issue 4, 24-25

Abstract: The results of the estimates obtained using the Gaidar Institute method of decomposing Russia’s GDP growth rates show that in 2015 all of the components of economic growth rates will make them negative. Furthermore, the current economic contractin is mostly of structural nature induced by the contraction of labor force and capital, as well as the stagnation of the total factor productivity. Additionally, in 2015, the average annual price of crude oil is more likely to fall below the long-time average annual, thereby making negative the foreign trade component of GDP growth rates. The market-determined component of GDP growth rates in 2015 will remain negative and even lower than that in 2014, being indicative of a stronger cyclical economic contraction in Russia. Therefore, the actual GDP appears to be below the potential value.

Keywords: Foreign; trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F10 F14 F15 F40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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