Accelerating Inflation Will Require a High Key Rate in 2023–2024

Ускорение инфляции потребует высокой ключевой ставки в 2023–2024 гг

Yury N. Perevyshin and Pavel V. Trunin
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Yury N. Perevyshin: Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Pavel V. Trunin: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Russian Economic Development, 2023, issue 12, 4-8

Abstract: Based on October results, the year-over-year inflation (for the past 12 months) has sped up to 6.7% with the level of consumer prices in October increasing by 0.83%, thus amounting to 9.7% in terms of annual growth rates of prices with seasonality adjusted. On October 27, the Central Bank of Russia raised the key rate by 200 basis points to 15.0% annually; as a result, in the current cycle of the monetary policy tightening which began on July 21, the key rate has already increased twofold. The signal of the monetary policy’s further direction was mitigated and the regulator put its future decisions in dependence on the inflation rate’s actual dynamics in the forthcoming months. The Central Bank of Russia’s updated forecast allows growth in the key rate by another 100 basis points in December and its average increase by 150 basis points in 2024.

Keywords: inflation; inflation expectations; monetary policy; key rate; Bank of Russia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E52 F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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