Into the Blue: An ERC Synergy Grant Resolving Past Arctic Greenhouse Climate States

Jochen Knies (), Gerrit Lohmann, Stijn De Schepper, Monica Winsborrow, Juliane Müller, Mohamed M. Ezat and Petra M. Langebroek
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Jochen Knies: iC3—Centre for Ice: Cryosphere, Carbon and Climate, Department of Geosciences, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
Gerrit Lohmann: Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Am Handelshafen 12, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
Stijn De Schepper: NORCE Research AS, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Jahnebakken 5, 5008 Bergen, Norway
Monica Winsborrow: iC3—Centre for Ice: Cryosphere, Carbon and Climate, Department of Geosciences, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
Juliane Müller: Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Am Handelshafen 12, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
Mohamed M. Ezat: iC3—Centre for Ice: Cryosphere, Carbon and Climate, Department of Geosciences, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, 9037 Tromsø, Norway
Petra M. Langebroek: iC3—Centre for Ice: Cryosphere, Carbon and Climate, Department of Geosciences, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, 9037 Tromsø, Norway

Challenges, 2025, vol. 16, issue 3, 1-14

Abstract: The Arctic Ocean is turning blue. Abrupt Arctic warming and amplification is driving rapid sea ice decline and irreversible deglaciation of Greenland. The already emerging, substantial consequences for the planet and society are intensifying and yet, model-based projections lack validatory consensus. To date, we cannot anticipate how a blue Arctic will respond to and amplify an increasingly warmer future climate, nor how it will impact the wider planet and society. Climate projections are inconclusive as we critically lack key Arctic geological archives that preserved the answers. This “Arctic Challenge” of global significance can only be addressed by investigating the processes, consequences, and impacts of past “greenhouse” (warmer-than-present) climate states. To address this challenge, the ERC Synergy Grant project Into the Blue (i2B) is undertaking a program of research focused on retrieving new Arctic geological archives of past warmth and key breakthroughs in climate model performance to deliver a ground-breaking, synergistic framework to answer the central question: “Why and what were the global ramifications of a “blue” (ice-free) Arctic during past warmer-than-present climates?” Here, we present the proposed research plan that will be conducted as part of this program. Into the Blue will quantify cryosphere (sea ice and land ice) change in a warmer world that will form the scientific basis for understanding the dynamics of Arctic cryosphere and ocean changes to enable the quantitative assessment of the impact of Arctic change on ocean biosphere, climate extremes, and society that will underpin future cryosphere-inclusive IPCC assessments.

Keywords: Arctic Ocean; sea ice; paleoclimate; interglacials; Pliocene; Miocene; earth system modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A00 C00 Z00 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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