The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Mortality from Non-Communicable Diseases: Evidence from Azerbaijan

Mayis Gulaliyev (), Masim Abadov, Vugar Gapagov, Irada Mehdiyeva and Jeyhun Mahmudov
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Mayis Gulaliyev: Department of Economics and Management, Ganja State University, 11, Mikayil Mushfik str, Ganja AZ 2000, Azerbaijan
Masim Abadov: Department of Economics and Management, Ganja State University, 11, Mikayil Mushfik str, Ganja AZ 2000, Azerbaijan
Vugar Gapagov: Department of Economics of Tourism Industry, Azerbaijan Technological University, 103, Shah Ismail Khatai, Ganja AZ 2000, Azerbaijan
Irada Mehdiyeva: Department of Applied Economics, Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC), 6, Istiglaliyyat ave., Baku AZ 2000, Azerbaijan
Jeyhun Mahmudov: High Education Institute of Azerbaijan Technical University, 25, Huseyn Javid ave., Baku AZ 2000, Azerbaijan

Economies, 2025, vol. 13, issue 5, 1-15

Abstract: The empirical findings of this study suggest a significant long-term relationship between the probability of mortality due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) among individuals aged 30–70 in Azerbaijan and key economic and social indicators, including Gross Domestic Product per Capita, Waged Employment, Human Development Index, and out-of-pocket health expenditures . The Error Correction Model coefficient (−0.724701) implies that the system adjusts back to equilibrium at a rate of 72.47% per period , highlighting a strong corrective mechanism. Additionally, in the short run, GDP, HDI, wage employment, and out-of-pocket health expenditures significantly influence mortality rates. The model’s statistical diagnostics confirm its robustness, and the results align with economic theory, reinforcing their validity and policy relevance. According to the conclusion of this research, we suggest the enhancement of the HDI and Employment, control out-of-pocket expenditures, and increase Government Healthcare Spending to significantly reduce mortality rates. This study emphasizes that enhancing social determinants like the HDI , Waged Employment , and accessible healthcare services is crucial for reducing mortality rates of NCDs. While Azerbaijan’s economic growth has improved living standards, further efforts are necessary to improve healthcare investments and reduce inequalities in health outcomes.

Keywords: non-communicable diseases; GDP; human development index; out-of-pocket health expenditures; waged employment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E F I J O Q (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:13:y:2025:i:5:p:115-:d:1639862

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