Short-Term Forecasting of Electric Loads Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Artificial Neural Networks with Exogenous Vector Inputs

Jaime Buitrago and Shihab Asfour
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Jaime Buitrago: University of Miami, Department of Industrial Engineering, 1251 Memorial Drive, 268 McArthur Engineering Building, Coral Gables, FL 33146, USA
Shihab Asfour: University of Miami, Department of Industrial Engineering, 1251 Memorial Drive, 268 McArthur Engineering Building, Coral Gables, FL 33146, USA

Energies, 2017, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-24

Abstract: Short-term load forecasting is crucial for the operations planning of an electrical grid. Forecasting the next 24 h of electrical load in a grid allows operators to plan and optimize their resources. The purpose of this study is to develop a more accurate short-term load forecasting method utilizing non-linear autoregressive artificial neural networks (ANN) with exogenous multi-variable input (NARX). The proposed implementation of the network is new: the neural network is trained in open-loop using actual load and weather data, and then, the network is placed in closed-loop to generate a forecast using the predicted load as the feedback input. Unlike the existing short-term load forecasting methods using ANNs, the proposed method uses its own output as the input in order to improve the accuracy, thus effectively implementing a feedback loop for the load, making it less dependent on external data. Using the proposed framework, mean absolute percent errors in the forecast in the order of 1% have been achieved, which is a 30% improvement on the average error using feedforward ANNs, ARMAX and state space methods, which can result in large savings by avoiding commissioning of unnecessary power plants. The New England electrical load data are used to train and validate the forecast prediction.

Keywords: short-term load forecasting; nonlinear autoregressive exogenous input; artificial neural networks; closed-loop forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (26)

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